Lorraine Ryall
While we all are accustomed to the summer months being slow in the real estate market, with a lot of sellers taking their homes off the market during June, July and August, this year, June remained strong and, in some areas, had the highest monthly sales year-to-date.
The Cromford Report data shows the Maricopa County Recorder processed 10,285 residential sales deeds in June (single family and condo), which is the highest monthly total since August 2006. Resales accounted for 88 percent, while 12 percent were new homes.
Median prices continue to increase, with $229,000 the latest number, but a large part of that is due to the fall off in low-end volume, caused by the very short supply of homes for sale.
Market Summary for June year-over-year for the Phoenix Metro Area
Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for July 1, 2016 relative to July 1, 2015 for all areas and types:
| Phoenix Metro Statistics | June 2015 | June 2016 | Percent Change |
| Active Listings (excluding UCB): | 19,548 | 20,458 | up 4.7% |
| Under Contract Listings (Inc. Pending & UCB): | 10, 747 | 11,383 | up 5.9% |
| Monthly Sales: | 8,692 | 8,954 | up 3.0% |
| Monthly Median Price: | $215,000 | $230,000 | up 7.0% |
The ranges from $200,000 to $350,000 saw strong growth in closed sales over June last year—up almost 19 percent. Between $350,000 and $400,000, we saw a little weakness, down 2 percent, but sales from $400,000 all the way up to $1.5 million were strong—up an impressive 21 percent. Sales over $1.5 million were very much weaker than last year—down 44 percent. Sales below $175,000 also were well down, but this was caused by a lack of supply. The segment over $1.5 million cannot use that excuse. There are plenty of homes available, even though a large number have been removed from the market for the summer. Many of these are likely to be relisted at the end of September.
At first sight, it looks as though pricing was strong during June, with the median sales price up 2.2 percent from last month. However, this is deceiving because the average home price only rose 0.3 percent, and the average home size jumped 1.3 percent, from 1,978 in May, to 2,004 in June. The average price, per square foot, retreated 1 percent over the month, and we see this as a more accurate measure than the median sales price.
We expect overall prices to be flat to slightly lower over the next three months, as luxury homes make a smaller contribution when the temperatures exceed 100 degrees. Prices still are rising below $200,000 and falling for most homes over $1 million.
Dollar volume in June was a healthy $2.529 billion, up 7 percent from June 2015, with about half of that coming from higher sales volume and the rest from higher pricing.
Luxury Market
The main difference we saw between May and June was an improvement in demand for homes in the lower ranges of the luxury market, between $500,000 and $1.5 million. In particular:
- $500K-$600K saw an increase of 30% in dollars spent (compared with June 2015)
- $600K-$800K saw an increase of 20% in dollars spent
- $800K-$1M saw an increase of 24% in dollars spent
- $1M-$1.5M saw an increase of 27% in dollars spent
There is a big contrast above $1.5M:
- $1.5M-$2M saw an increase of 2%
- $2M-$3M saw a decrease of 41%
- $3M and over saw a decrease of 61%
Mind you, June 2015 was a very good month for the super-luxury market, so the comparison is quite tough for June 2016.
We began July with 10,997 listings under contract, compared to 10,761 for this time last year, which is an increase of 2 percent.
| Mesa Statistics | June 2015 | June 2016 | Percent Change |
| Days Inventory | 69.8 | 66.7 | down 4.6% |
| Active Listings | 1400 | 1430 | up 2.1% |
| Monthly Sales | 743 | 810 | up 9% |
| Monthly Median Price | $215,000 | $227,950 | up 6% |
Las Sendas saw a significant increase in home sales in June and the highest volume of sales per month so far this year, with 26 sales compared to 16 in June 2015. Total sales for Las Sendas year-to-date have increased by 10 percent.
Red Mountain Ranch home sales year-to-date have decreased by 9 percent over last year.
Mountain Bridge saw a significant increase in home resales in June and a 45 percent increase in home sales year-to-date.
If you would like information on your specific neighborhood, please call me directly, or send me an email, and I will send you a free market analysis.
Lorraine Ryall has been a Multi-Million Dollar producer for the past seven years. You can reach Lorraine at (602) 571-6799. You also can send her an email at Lorraine@Homes2SellAZ.com, or visit her website at www.Homes2SellAZ.com.